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Population Growth in the Largest Counties: Texas, Florida and the South

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As last week's US Census Bureau population estimates indicated, the story of population growth between 2014 and 2015 was largely about Texas, as it has been for the decade starting 2010 (See: “Texas Keeps Getting Bigger” The New Metropolitan Area Estimates).  The same is largely true with respect to population trends in the nation's largest counties, with The Lone Star state dominating both in the population growth and domestic migration among 135 counties with more than 500,000 population. Florida also did very well, especially in view of the population and migration reversals that occurred around the Great Recession. Strong showings in other Southern states ensured that 80 percent of the fastest-growing large counties and those with the fastest domestic migration rates were in the South. The few remaining positions were taken up by metropolitan areas in the West (Table).

Large County Growth in Texas

Houston, which is the fastest growing major metropolitan area (over 1 million population) in the nation includes the two fastest growing large counties. Fort Bend County added 4.29 percent to its population between 2014 and 2015 and now has 716,000 residents. Montgomery County grew 3.57 percent to 538,000. In addition to these two suburban Houston counties, Harris County, the core County ranked 16th in growth, adding 2.03 percent to its population and exceeding 4.5 million population.

Dallas-Fort Worth, the second fastest-growing major metropolitan area has two counties among the top 20. The third fastest-growing county is Denton (located north of Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport), which added 3.42 percent to its population over the past year and now has 781,000 residents. Collin County, to the north of Dallas County, grew 3.17 percent and now stands at 914,000 residents. Its current growth rate would put Collin County over 1 million population by the 2020 census.

Travis County, with its county seat of Austin, grew 2.22 percent to 1,177,000 and ranked 12th. Bexar County, centered on San Antonio grew 2.01 percent and ranks 17th.

The I-4 & Middle Florida Corridor

But there is another impressive growth story in the "I-4 & Middle Florida" corridor (the term “Central Florida“ is not used, because that usually just denotes the Orlando area).  This includes counties along the Interstate 4 corridor, which runs from Tampa-St. Petersburg through Orlando to Daytona Beach as well as one county along Interstate 95 just south of Daytona Beach and adjacent to the Orlando metropolitan area.

Five of the fastest growing 20 counties with more than 500,000 population are located in this corridor. Orange County, the core of highly suburban Orlando grew at a rate of 2.49 percent between 2014 and 2015 and ranked seventh. Polk County (Lakeland metropolitan area), located midway between Orlando and Tampa-St. Petersburg grew 2.33 percent and ranked 10th. The south western terminus of Interstate 4 in   Hillsborough County, which includes Tampa, Hillsborough County, grew 2.33 percent, though slightly slower than adjacent Polk County and ranked 11th. The other, north eastern terminus of Interstate 4 is located in Daytona Beach, in Volusia County. Volusia County grew at a rate of 2.00 percent and ranks 19th in population growth. Just to the south of is Brevard County, straddling Interstate 95. Brevard County (Palm Bay-Melbourne metropolitan area) grew 2.01 percent and ranked 18th in growth.

But Florida's fastest-growing large county was Lee, centered on Cape Coral and Fort Myers. Lee County added 3.35 percent to its population and now has 702,000 residents.

Other Fast Growing Counties

Denver County continued its strong growth (2.80 percent) and ranked sixth. Wake County, core of the Raleigh metropolitan area, grew at 2.49 percent and ranked eighth. Utah County, in the Provo metropolitan area grew 2.43 percent and ranked ninth.

Other counties in the top 20 included Clark (Las Vegas) in Nevada, Mecklenburg (Charlotte) in North Carolina, Gwinnett, a suburban county of Atlanta and Washington, a suburban county of Portland.

Overall, sixteen of the 20 fastest growing large counties were in the South and four in the West (Figure 1).

Largest Domestic Migration

As with population growth, the top 20 in domestic migration was dominated by the South with 16 entries. Four of the migration magnets were located in  metropolitan areas from the West (Figure 2).

Not surprisingly, the counties with the largest net domestic migration were often near the top of the list in population growth. Lee County, Florida (Cape Coral and Fort Myers) had the greatest net domestic migration between 2014 and 2015, at 3.10 percent. This is a particularly important reversal for Lee County, which experienced some of the most catastrophic house price declines during the housing bust.

Houston’s Fort Bend and Montgomery counties (Texas), the fastest growing large counties had the second and third largest domestic migration respectively. Denton County and Collin County, in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area ranked 5th and 7th respectively. Bexar County (San Antonio) ranked 18th, while Travis County (Austin) ranked 20th.

The I-4 & Middle Florida corridor also did well. Volusia County (Daytona Beach) ranked 4th in domestic migration, followed by its neighbor to the south, Brevard County. Polk County (Lakeland) ranked 9th, Hillsborough County (Tampa) ranked 13th and Orange County (Orlando) ranked 16th. In addition, Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), just across the bridge from Tampa ranked 12th. Palm Beach County, which is outside the I-4 & Middle Florida corridor ranked 14th.

Denver County, at 8th, was the highest ranking in domestic migration outside Texas and Florida. Other high ranking counties included #10 Wake County (Raleigh), #11 Clark County (Las Vegas), #15 Maricopa County (Phoenix), Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) and #19 Washington County (suburban Portland).

Slowest Growing Counties

Seventeen of the 135 largest counties lost population. The 20 large counties with the least percentage population growth (or loss) were fairly evenly distributed outside the West. Eight were in the Northeast, seven in the Midwest and five in the South (Figure 3). The largest losses occurred in the counties containing core cities with some of the largest population losses in the last seven decades. These include Wayne County (Detroit), Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) Baltimore city, Cook County (Chicago) and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), Hartford County, Monroe County (Rochester) and Erie County (Buffalo). The bottom 10 also included New Haven County, Connecticut and Summit County, Ohio (Akron).

Largest Domestic Migration Losses: A New York Story

Among the 20 largest domestic migration losses, 10 were in the Northeast, four in the Midwest, and six in the South (Figure 4)

The largest domestic migration losses are taking place  in the New York metropolitan area, which accounted for eight of the 13 largest counties in terms of domestic migration losses. This includes Hudson County New Jersey, which had the largest loss. It also included Kings County (Brooklyn), which had the fourth largest domestic migration loss. Bronx County had the seventh largest loss, Queens County the eighth largest loss and Manhattan County the 11th largest loss. In addition, other New Jersey suburban counties had substantial domestic migration losses, including Passaic County, Middlesex County and Essex County (Newark).

The South rated best in population growth and net domestic migration, but some large southern counties had among the largest domestic migration losses. These include Fairfax County (Washington suburb), El Paso County in Texas, Miami-Dade County in Florida and Baltimore city. Cook County (Chicago) was also among the top 10 domestic migration losers.

Moreover, the 13 large counties with the greatest losses excluded   Wayne County, with its core city (Detroit) that has lost more of its population (percentagewise) than any other large municipality in the world. Yet, all of the counties listed above, including the eight in the New York metropolitan area lost a greater share of their population by domestic migrants than Wayne County.

Dominance by the South and the West

Overall, the largest counties added approximately 1.53 million residents over the past year. More than one half of that net domestic migration was in 19 counties of the South, 11 in the West, none in the Midwest and none in the Northeast. Three quarters of the net domestic migration was in just 52 of the 135 counties, with the South accounting for 30 counties. There were also 20 counties in the West, two in the Midwest and none in the Northeast. The two Midwestern counties were Franklin, Ohio (Columbus) and Dane, Wisconsin (Madison).







US Counties Over 500,000 Population: Ranked By Population Growth 2014-2015 %
2014-2015 & 2010-2015
PopulationChangeDom. Migra.
RankCounty, State4/20107/20147/2015Fr2010Fr2014Fr2010Fr2014Fr2010Fr2014
1Fort Bend, Texas     585        687        716      131        29 22.4%4.29%13.1%2.69%
2Montgomery, Texas     456        519        538        82        19 17.9%3.57%11.8%2.48%
3Denton, Texas     663        755        781      118        26 17.8%3.42%10.4%2.14%
4Lee, Florida     619        679        702        83        23 13.5%3.35%10.8%3.10%
5Collin, Texas     782        886        914      132        28 16.8%3.17%9.3%1.86%
6Denver, Colorado     600        664        683        83        19 13.8%2.80%7.2%1.59%
7Orange, Florida  1,146     1,256     1,288      142        32 12.4%2.52%3.6%0.84%
8Wake, North Carolina     901        999     1,024      123        25 13.7%2.49%6.6%1.22%
9Utah, Utah     517        562        575        59        14 11.3%2.43%0.3%0.45%
10Polk, Florida     602        635        650        48        15 8.0%2.33%4.2%1.53%
11Hillsborough, Florida  1,229     1,318     1,349      120        31 9.7%2.33%3.4%1.11%
12Travis, Texas  1,024     1,151     1,177      152        26 14.9%2.22%6.5%0.77%
13Clark, Nevada  1,951     2,069     2,115      164        46 8.4%2.21%3.1%1.20%
14Mecklenburg, North Carolina     920     1,012     1,034      114        22 12.4%2.19%4.9%0.84%
15Gwinnett, Georgia     805        878        896        90        18 11.2%2.06%3.6%0.69%
16Harris, Texas  4,093     4,448     4,538      445        90 10.9%2.03%2.0%0.38%
17Bexar, Texas  1,715     1,860     1,898      183        37 10.7%2.01%4.4%0.82%
18Brevard, Florida     543        557        568        25        11 4.5%2.01%4.5%1.97%
19Volusia, Florida     495        508        518        23        10 4.7%2.00%5.3%2.14%
20Washington, Oregon     530        563        574        44        11 8.4%1.96%2.3%0.80%
21Maricopa, Arizona  3,817     4,090     4,168      351        78 9.2%1.91%3.9%0.92%
22Washington, District of Columbia     602        660        672        70        12 11.7%1.88%4.3%0.57%
23Tarrant, Texas  1,810     1,946     1,982      173        36 9.6%1.86%3.0%0.61%
24Arapahoe, Colorado     572        620        631        59        11 10.3%1.85%4.0%0.72%
25El Paso, Colorado     622        663        674        52        12 8.4%1.75%2.2%0.55%
26Palm Beach, Florida  1,320     1,399     1,423      103        24 7.8%1.74%4.2%1.00%
27Snohomish, Washington     713        759        773        59        13 8.3%1.72%3.0%0.67%
28King, Washington  1,931     2,082     2,117      186        35 9.6%1.67%2.4%0.29%
29Multnomah, Oregon     735        778        790        55        12 7.5%1.60%2.8%0.68%
30Alameda, California  1,510     1,613     1,638      128        25 8.5%1.57%1.2%0.22%
31Pierce, Washington     795        831        844        49        13 6.1%1.54%1.1%0.58%
32San Joaquin, California     685        715        726        41        11 6.0%1.54%0.6%0.52%
33Duval, Florida     864        899        913        49        14 5.6%1.52%0.5%0.47%
34DeKalb, Georgia     692        724        735        43        11 6.2%1.47%-2.5%-0.10%
35Davidson, Tennessee     627        669        679        52        10 8.3%1.46%2.0%0.30%
36San Francisco, California     805        853        865        60        12 7.4%1.44%0.6%0.20%
37Broward, Florida  1,748     1,870     1,896      148        27 8.5%1.43%1.7%0.11%
38Franklin, Ohio  1,164     1,234     1,252        88        18 7.6%1.43%1.0%0.17%
39Fulton, Georgia     921        996     1,011        90        14 9.8%1.41%3.4%0.28%
40Cobb, Georgia     688        731        741        53        10 7.7%1.41%1.4%0.24%
41Riverside, California  2,190     2,328     2,361      171        33 7.8%1.40%3.0%0.51%
42Tulsa, Oklahoma     603        630        639        36          9 5.9%1.40%1.5%0.53%
43Contra Costa, California  1,049     1,112     1,127        78        15 7.4%1.35%2.8%0.49%
44Sacramento, California  1,419     1,481     1,501        83        20 5.8%1.34%0.4%0.28%
45Dallas, Texas  2,368     2,520     2,553      186        34 7.8%1.34%0.0%-0.10%
46Salt Lake, Utah  1,030     1,093     1,107        78        14 7.5%1.32%-0.1%-0.09%
47Oklahoma, Oklahoma     719        767        777        58        10 8.1%1.31%2.5%0.23%
48Dane, Wisconsin     488        517        524        36          7 7.3%1.30%1.9%0.25%
49Hidalgo, Texas     775        832        842        68        11 8.7%1.29%-1.1%-0.52%
50Pinellas, Florida     917        938        950        33        12 3.6%1.25%3.7%1.18%
51Stanislaus, California     514        532        538        24          6 4.7%1.21%-0.7%0.12%
52Santa Clara, California  1,782     1,896     1,918      136        22 7.7%1.16%-1.5%-0.53%
53Jefferson, Colorado     535        559        566        31          6 5.8%1.16%3.4%0.69%
54Douglas, Nebraska     517        544        550        33          6 6.4%1.12%0.2%-0.07%
55Suffolk, Massachusetts     722        770        778        56          8 7.8%1.08%-2.1%-0.75%
56Johnson, Kansas     544        574        580        36          6 6.6%1.08%1.6%0.12%
57San Diego, California  3,095     3,266     3,300      204        34 6.6%1.04%-0.2%-0.29%
58Fresno, California     930        965        975        44        10 4.8%1.02%-1.7%-0.21%
59Kent, Michigan     603        630        636        34          6 5.6%0.97%0.6%0.02%
60Bronx, New York  1,385     1,442     1,455        70        14 5.1%0.95%-6.0%-1.10%
61Montgomery, Maryland     972     1,030     1,040        68        10 7.0%0.94%-2.2%-0.80%
62Kern, California     840        874        882        43          8 5.1%0.91%-1.5%-0.31%
63Hennepin, Minnesota  1,152     1,212     1,223        71        11 6.1%0.91%-0.1%-0.29%
64Miami-Dade, Florida  2,498     2,669     2,693      195        24 7.8%0.91%-3.3%-1.23%
65Guilford, North Carolina     488        513        518        29          5 6.0%0.90%1.9%0.15%
66San Mateo, California     718        758        765        47          7 6.5%0.90%0.2%-0.21%
67Ramsey, Minnesota     509        534        538        29          4 5.8%0.84%-1.5%-0.60%
68San Bernardino, California  2,035     2,110     2,128        93        18 4.6%0.84%-1.1%-0.23%
69Middlesex, Massachusetts  1,503     1,573     1,585        82        13 5.5%0.80%-0.8%-0.42%
70Hudson, New Jersey     634        670        675        41          5 6.4%0.80%-6.6%-1.65%
71Orange, California  3,010     3,145     3,170      160        25 5.3%0.79%-0.4%-0.32%
72Essex, Massachusetts     743        770        776        33          6 4.4%0.72%0.1%-0.18%
73Queens, New York  2,231     2,322     2,339      109        17 4.9%0.72%-5.1%-1.09%
74Anne Arundel, Maryland     538        560        564        27          4 4.9%0.70%1.0%-0.04%
75Prince George's, Maryland     864        903        910        46          6 5.3%0.68%-2.4%-0.72%
76Honolulu, Hawaii     953        992        999        46          7 4.8%0.67%-2.4%-0.75%
77Plymouth, Massachusetts     495        507        510        15          3 3.1%0.66%0.7%0.14%
78Kane, Illinois     515        528        531        16          3 3.0%0.63%-1.8%-0.23%
79New Castle, Delaware     538        553        557        18          3 3.4%0.62%-0.6%-0.18%
80Kings, New York  2,505     2,621     2,637      132        16 5.3%0.61%-5.0%-1.25%
81Bergen, New Jersey     905        933        939        33          6 3.7%0.61%-0.8%-0.28%
82Los Angeles, California  9,819   10,109   10,170      352        61 3.6%0.60%-2.7%-0.60%
83Jackson, Missouri     674        684        688        13          4 2.0%0.58%-1.4%-0.06%
84Pima, Arizona     980     1,004     1,010        30          6 3.0%0.58%0.1%0.02%
85Lancaster, Pennsylvania     519        534        537        17          3 3.3%0.56%-0.6%-0.28%
86Ventura, California     823        846        851        27          4 3.3%0.52%-1.3%-0.34%
87Chester, Pennsylvania     499        513        516        17          3 3.4%0.52%0.1%-0.16%
88Union, New Jersey     536        553        556        19          3 3.6%0.49%-3.0%-0.70%
89Worcester, Massachusetts     799        815        819        20          4 2.6%0.49%-1.1%-0.27%
90Norfolk, Massachusetts     671        693        696        25          3 3.8%0.48%0.0%-0.29%
91Marion, Indiana     903        935        939        36          4 3.9%0.48%-1.6%-0.55%
92Ocean, New Jersey     577        586        589        12          3 2.1%0.48%0.6%0.07%
93New York, New York  1,586     1,637     1,645        59          8 3.7%0.46%-4.4%-0.99%
94Sedgwick, Kansas     498        509        512        13          2 2.7%0.45%-2.3%-0.48%
95Middlesex, New Jersey     810        837        841        31          4 3.8%0.43%-3.8%-1.02%
96Baltimore, Maryland     805        828        831        26          3 3.3%0.40%-0.4%-0.31%
97Westchester, New York     949        973        976        27          4 2.9%0.40%-1.9%-0.46%
98Jefferson, Kentucky     741        761        764        23          3 3.0%0.39%-0.3%-0.27%
99Bristol, Massachusetts     548        555        557          8          2 1.5%0.39%0.0%0.04%
100Philadelphia, Pennsylvania  1,526     1,562     1,567        41          6 2.7%0.38%-3.1%-0.68%
101Macomb, Michigan     841        862        865        24          3 2.8%0.37%0.6%-0.12%
102Montgomery, Pennsylvania     800        817        819        19          3 2.4%0.33%-0.2%-0.24%
103Essex, New Jersey     784        795        797        13          2 1.7%0.31%-4.9%-0.89%
104Fairfax, Virginia  1,082     1,139     1,142        61          3 5.6%0.28%-4.3%-1.47%
105Will, Illinois     678        686        687        10          2 1.4%0.24%-2.4%-0.47%
106Fairfield, Connecticut     917        946        948        31          2 3.4%0.24%-1.9%-0.74%
107Providence, Rhode Island     627        632        633          7          1 1.1%0.23%-3.4%-0.67%
108Nassau, New York  1,340     1,359     1,361        22          3 1.6%0.20%-1.2%-0.33%
109Passaic, New Jersey     502        510        511          9          1 1.9%0.20%-5.6%-1.20%
110Oakland, Michigan  1,202     1,240     1,242        40          2 3.3%0.19%-0.3%-0.53%
111Delaware, Pennsylvania     559        563        564          5          1 0.9%0.17%-1.8%-0.43%
112Hamilton, Ohio     802        806        808          5          1 0.7%0.16%-2.4%-0.40%
113Bernalillo, New Mexico     663        676        677        14          1 2.1%0.15%-1.2%-0.47%
114Bucks, Pennsylvania     625        627        627          2          1 0.3%0.12%-0.8%-0.14%
115St. Louis, Missouri     999     1,002     1,003          4          1 0.4%0.12%-1.8%-0.35%
116El Paso, Texas     801        836        836        35          0 4.4%0.01%-3.3%-1.44%
117Jefferson, Alabama     658        660        660          2        (0)0.3%0.00%-1.6%-0.33%
118DuPage, Illinois     917        934        934        17        (0)1.8%0.00%-2.5%-0.80%
119Camden, New Jersey     514        511        511        (3)       (0)-0.5%-0.01%-4.0%-0.68%
120Milwaukee, Wisconsin     948        958        958        10        (0)1.1%-0.02%-3.4%-0.86%
121Lake, Illinois     703        704        704          1        (0)0.1%-0.03%-4.1%-0.80%
122Shelby, Tennessee     928        938        938        10        (0)1.1%-0.04%-3.2%-0.83%
123Monmouth, New Jersey     630        629        629        (2)       (0)-0.3%-0.05%-2.0%-0.37%
124Montgomery, Ohio     535        533        532        (3)       (0)-0.5%-0.05%-2.4%-0.45%
125Suffolk, New York  1,493     1,502     1,502          8        (1)0.6%-0.05%-2.5%-0.63%
126Erie, New York     919        923        923          4        (1)0.4%-0.07%-1.4%-0.47%
127Monroe, New York     744        750        750          5        (1)0.7%-0.10%-2.6%-0.80%
128Hartford, Connecticut     894        897        896          2        (1)0.2%-0.11%-3.4%-0.81%
129Summit, Ohio     542        543        542          0        (1)0.0%-0.12%-1.4%-0.41%
130Allegheny, Pennsylvania  1,223     1,233     1,230          7        (2)0.6%-0.20%-0.4%-0.46%
131Cook, Illinois  5,195     5,249     5,238        43      (10)0.8%-0.20%-4.0%-1.06%
132New Haven, Connecticut     862        861        859        (3)       (2)-0.3%-0.21%-3.4%-0.84%
133Baltimore city, Maryland     621        624        622          1        (2)0.1%-0.30%-3.8%-0.92%
134Cuyahoga, Ohio  1,280     1,261     1,256      (24)       (5)-1.9%-0.37%-3.7%-0.76%
135Wayne, Michigan  1,821     1,766     1,759      (61)       (7)-3.4%-0.38%-6.2%-0.87%
In 000s
Data from Census Bureau

 

Wendell Cox is principal of Demographia, an international pubilc policy and demographics firm. He is a Senior Fellow of the Center for Opportunity Urbanism (US), Senior Fellow for Housing Affordability and Municipal Policy for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy (Canada), and a member of the Board of Advisors of the Center for Demographics and Policy at Chapman University (California). He is co-author of the "Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey" and author of "Demographia World Urban Areas" and "War on the Dream: How Anti-Sprawl Policy Threatens the Quality of Life." He was appointed to three terms on the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission, where he served with the leading city and county leadership as the only non-elected member. He served as a visiting professor at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, a national university in Paris.

Photograph: Lee County, Florida (Cape Coral-Fort Myers), Top domestic migration gainer (by author)


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