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The Uncelebrated Places Where America's Farm Economy Is Thriving

We consume their products every day but economists give them little attention, and perhaps not enough respect. Yet America’s agriculture sector is not only the country’s oldest economic pillar but still a vital one, accounting for some 3.75 million jobs — not only in the fields, but in factories, laboratories and distribution. That compares to about 4.3 million jobs in the tech sector (which we analyzed last month here). Net farm income totaled $108 billion in 2014, according to preliminary figures from the USDA, up 24% from 2004.

This growth may not be impressive by Silicon Valley standards, but most farms and agribusinesses are likely to be with us longer than the latest social media darlings. Online crazes like FarmVille may come and go, but people always have to eat, and in the rest of world, many of them are eating more, and, as the old saying goes, “higher on the hog.” As the world’s leading exporter of agricultural products, the U.S. farm sector is capitalizing on that. The dollar value of U.S. agricultural exports rose to a record $152.5 billion in 2014, making up about 9% of total U.S. goods exports for the year. It’s one of a short list of sectors in which the United States has continued to consistently post a trade surplus — $42 billion last year.

For 2013, the USDA estimated that agricultural exports supported about 1.1 million full-time private-sector jobs, which included 793,900 off the farm (in the food processing industry, the trade and transportation sector and in other supporting industries).

There are many communities in America where agriculture is still a primary industry — even the dominant one. Working with Mark Schill, head of research at the Grand Forks, N.D.-based Praxis Strategy Group, we analyzed the performance of the nation’s largest 124 agriculture economies and put together a list of the strongest ones. We ranked the 124 metropolitan statistical areas based on short- and long-term job growth (2004-14 and 2012-14) in 68 agriculture-related industries (including food processing and manufacturing, wholesaling and farm equipment), average earnings in these communities, earnings growth, and the share of agribusiness in the local workforce.

Short On Water, But Still In The Lead

California may be struggling with a terrible drought, but its agricultural economy still thrives in the domestic and international markets. Six of our top 10 U.S. agricultural economies are in California, including No. 1 Madera, No. 3 Merced and No. 6 Bakersfield. These California regions have a similar profile: an outsized concentration in agribusiness, roughly 10 times the national average, reasonable growth, and low but rising wages.

All these areas did poorly during the recession, and some, notably Merced, have served as exemplars of what The New York Times described as the “ruins of the American dream.” Many California farm communities, particularly those closer to the ultra-pricey Bay Area, hoped that lower land prices would bring skilled workers, and maybe jobs, to their towns from places like Silicon Valley.

But if this aspiration to become a high-tech exurb has floundered in many places, the traditional agricultural economy has continued to roll along. Since 2004, agribusiness employment in our top-ranked agricultural economy, Madera, has surged 36.6%, which is impressive given that nationwide over the same time span, agribusiness employment has remained pretty much unchanged. Although pay for local agriculture-related jobs remains relatively low, wages have risen 15.7% over the past decade to $26,557 for the 14,700 people in this sector. (Note that farm owners on the whole are doing quite well. In 2013, the average farm household income was $118,373, according to the Congressional Research Service, 63% higher than the average U.S. household income of $72,641.)

The key to California farming is dominance in specialized, high-value sectors. California accounts for a remarkable 80% of the world’s almonds, and that lucrative cash crop has been key to Madera’s prosperity — the county produced $623 million worth of almonds in 2013. The area is a big producer of milk and grapes as well, and has a thriving organic farm sector.

Most of the other California leaders share a similar profile, but with sometimes different specializations. Grapes dominate No. 3 Bakersfield’s agricultural production, while Salinas (eighth), where we have both worked as consultants, describes itself as “the salad bowl of the world,” growing 70% of the nation’s lettuce. The area’s specialization in “fresh” has also made it a center of agricultural research and marketing, which provide higher-income opportunities than more traditional farm-based activities. The Salinas area  has also developed a thriving winery scene along the nearby Santa Lucia Mountains as well as a burgeoning number of organic farms production sector in recent years.

Heartland Hotspots

The other hot spot for the agriculture economy is the nation’s breadbasket. Our second-ranked agriculture hub, Decatur, Ill., grows the cash crops that built Middle America — corn and soybeans cover 80% of the area’s land. Due largely to the more mechanized nature of the area’s wet corn milling industry, and the large related industries, notably Archer Daniels Midland, the average local agribusiness worker makes $85,900 a year, almost three times the wages in Madera and other California farm areas.

In fourth place is St. Joseph, a metropolitan statistical area that straddles the Missouri and Kansas border. The area has become a major center for food processing companies – particularly meat — as well as animal pharmaceuticals. It’s a major hub along the Kansas City Animal Health Corridor, where nearly a third of the $19 billion global animal health industry is concentrated.

Other heartland growth areas include No. 11 Grand Island, Neb., No. 12 Evansville, Ind., and No. 14 Waterloo-Cedar Falls, Iowa. All these areas specialize in the agribusinesses that have long defined agriculture in the Midwest: cattle, grains and corn.

Just two areas in our top 10 are outside California and the heartland. Yakima, Wash., markets itself as the “fruit bowl of the nation,” and accounts for roughly 60% of the nation’s apple production, as well as a major share of cherries and pears. About 30% of the local workforce is employed in agriculture or related businesses. Perhaps the most surprising entrant on our list is the only large metro area in the top 10: ninth place Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell. While agribusiness is not dominant in Atlanta, it makes the list due to high rankings in agribusiness wages ($74,932, 2nd) and wage growth (up 24.5% since 2004). This is driven by high-value sectors such as flavoring syrups and concentrates for the beverage industry (Coca-Cola is based in the city), farm machinery manufacturing, coffee and tea, and breweries. Its high ranking also reflects the vast sprawl of the area, which still also includes many large poultry producers, as well growers of rye, peanuts and pecans.

The Agricultural Future

Even as population growth slows in the United States and other developed nations, higher birth rates in emerging markets mean the world will require a 70% increase in food production by 2050. The shift of China alone from self-sufficiency in grains such as wheat, corn and soybeans to import dependence all but guarantees growth opportunities for American producers.

To be sure, agricultural producers and the areas they are concentrated in face many challenges. Climate change is expected to impact the growing of certain crops. Severe water shortages, like the one California is experiencing, could threaten many agricultural areas throughout the traditionally arid West.

These challenges will force food producers and processors to adapt. But what kind of farms will meet the challenge? It seems likely that most of the demand will be filled by large, often family-controlled concerns, as has been the trend for decades. As of 2012, some 66% of U.S. farm production by dollar value was accounted for by just 4% of the country’s farms. The century-long process of mechanization that has steadily reduced the numbers of farm workers has moderated in recent decades. The farms of the future are increasingly high-tech and run by highly skilled professionals and technicians.

Simply put, large producers tend to be better suited to adapt to change, and particularly at marketing abroad. But at the same time, we can expect growth in more specialized fields, such as organic fruits, vegetables and meat as well as wine and specialty products, like olive oil. In fact two California areas known for artisanal production have logged considerable growth in recent years and placed highly on our list: Napa (13th) and Santa Maria-Santa Barbara (16th). In future years, we can expect that many other areas, even in the heartland, may look to these niches for profits.

The notion of a stable peasantry, so important in a country like France, and the romantic attachment to farming among many urbanities, does not apply to most of rural America.

As de Tocqueville noted in the first half of the 19th century, agriculture in America is a business. “Almost all farmers of the United States,” he observed,” combine industry with agriculture; most of them make agriculture a trade.”

The idea of living on the land may impress old hippies, urban exiles and hipsters, but for most U.S. agricultural communities, the attachment comes from producing jobs, incomes and opportunities for local residents. This may not be as utopian an approach as some might like, but it has brought more food to more tables than any farming economy in the world.









RankRegion (MSA)Score2004 - 2014 %  Job Change2012 - 2014 % Job Change2014 Wages, Salaries, & Proprietor Earnings2004-2014 Earnings Change2014 Location Quotient2014 Sector Jobs
1Madera, CA63.336.6%9.2% $ 26,557 15.7%11.5  14,730
2Decatur, IL59.77.7%1.8% $ 85,907 13.8%4.4    5,768
3Merced, CA58.814.9%10.2% $ 33,383 3.9%11.2  22,770
4St. Joseph, MO-KS58.4159.9%-0.1% $ 44,800 11.9%3.5    5,333
5Yakima, WA56.927.9%2.3% $ 27,075 14.2%12.0  34,537
6Bakersfield, CA55.244.6%10.7% $ 26,594 3.2%8.3  70,559
7Visalia-Porterville, CA54.714.2%2.9% $ 30,536 12.0%11.1  44,799
8Salinas, CA53.817.2%5.8% $ 32,509 -0.9%11.7  57,221
9Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA53.02.8%1.0% $ 74,932 24.5%0.5  30,758
10Hanford-Corcoran, CA52.30.7%1.3% $ 38,676 14.1%9.3  11,559
11Grand Island, NE51.432.3%-0.2% $ 41,632 14.5%7.0    8,158
12Evansville, IN-KY50.621.2%10.3% $ 46,548 12.5%1.3    5,041
13Napa, CA50.015.5%4.2% $ 51,483 -4.8%7.7  15,008
14Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA47.06.9%-0.9% $ 62,298 5.1%4.7  11,155
15Modesto, CA46.6-2.9%1.7% $ 42,215 10.3%6.2  28,978
16Santa Maria-Santa Barbara, CA46.123.2%8.0% $ 29,722 5.3%4.5  24,148
17Chico, CA46.019.6%8.0% $ 37,430 7.6%2.6    5,485
18Yuma, AZ45.6-18.7%-1.6% $ 27,921 22.7%7.9  14,062
19Santa Rosa, CA45.37.9%7.6% $ 41,952 3.5%3.3  17,864
20Kennewick-Richland, WA44.929.8%1.2% $ 29,603 8.2%6.3  19,308
21Wenatchee, WA44.410.2%0.0% $ 21,851 4.8%10.1  14,404
22Gettysburg, PA44.416.9%2.2% $ 37,146 2.9%6.1    6,032
23Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL44.410.4%0.8% $ 61,311 3.5%2.6  12,469
24Walla Walla, WA43.92.5%-1.4% $ 32,919 6.3%8.6    6,907
25Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH43.627.1%8.2% $ 46,168 2.2%0.4  27,025
26Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI43.316.8%6.7% $ 37,050 9.5%1.6  20,959
27Sioux Falls, SD43.20.4%4.2% $ 43,743 11.9%1.9    7,326
28Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN43.0-15.2%-1.1% $ 53,691 24.1%0.7  11,775
29New Orleans-Metairie, LA42.8-8.0%1.4% $ 59,275 13.3%0.5    6,968
30Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA42.05.4%3.9% $ 46,590 7.3%1.6  20,208
31Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA41.92.0%2.9% $ 33,401 10.8%3.9  11,167
32Canton-Massillon, OH41.725.1%8.6% $ 40,484 -2.6%1.4    6,009
33Fresno, CA41.54.0%-0.3% $ 29,168 7.6%6.8  66,982
34Amarillo, TX41.514.7%4.2% $ 38,692 6.1%2.4    7,411
35Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA41.45.4%0.1% $ 59,584 4.8%1.5  13,798
36Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN41.33.6%7.8% $ 49,291 -0.2%0.6  16,821
37Kalamazoo-Portage, MI41.16.4%5.0% $ 32,065 12.5%1.9    7,031
38Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI40.9-1.5%3.3% $ 49,930 8.6%0.8  39,300
39Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX40.8-7.3%6.5% $ 51,866 3.5%0.3  21,060
40Birmingham-Hoover, AL40.51.3%10.9% $ 38,714 0.3%0.5    6,401
41San Diego-Carlsbad, CA39.94.6%10.1% $ 33,886 3.3%0.5  19,359
42Bellingham, WA39.719.8%4.5% $ 30,171 6.5%2.3    5,441
43Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA39.426.2%0.2% $ 31,156 7.8%3.5  30,982
44Appleton, WI39.37.6%0.5% $ 43,222 5.0%2.9    9,032
45Cedar Rapids, IA39.17.1%1.2% $ 60,098 -4.5%1.6    5,922
46Gainesville, GA39.119.7%4.2% $ 34,848 -9.1%5.1  10,420
47Columbus, OH39.1-15.7%0.0% $ 60,747 7.4%0.6  14,524
48Peoria, IL39.0-5.6%-4.0% $ 48,075 20.9%1.1    5,132
49San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA39.0-5.0%9.2% $ 38,179 2.5%0.4  11,750
50Grand Forks, ND-MN38.9-10.8%-4.2% $ 39,268 19.3%3.5    5,303
51Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ38.8-2.2%6.5% $ 37,495 7.5%0.4  22,154
52San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande, CA38.626.0%-0.7% $ 32,695 11.1%2.5    7,682
53Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA38.62.6%7.1% $ 34,455 4.8%1.0  29,146
54Sioux City, IA-NE-SD38.5-4.7%-1.0% $ 42,084 -1.9%5.8  13,565
55Greeley, CO37.611.8%2.1% $ 32,324 -3.4%4.8  12,935
56Reading, PA37.55.0%5.8% $ 38,675 -2.7%1.9    8,553
57Fargo, ND-MN37.53.9%-3.3% $ 53,253 6.0%1.9    6,805
58Joplin, MO37.4-21.2%-1.4% $ 40,138 15.9%2.4    5,003
59Yuba City, CA37.2-14.0%-3.1% $ 32,690 13.9%4.6    6,050
60Green Bay, WI37.120.6%3.3% $ 36,437 -4.0%2.8  12,150
61Stockton-Lodi, CA37.1-2.4%-2.4% $ 35,861 8.1%4.3  25,296
62Salem, OR36.73.2%3.2% $ 26,949 1.6%4.0  17,217
63Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI36.7-7.5%2.2% $ 51,126 2.0%0.6  67,224
64Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA36.70.6%5.6% $ 39,415 2.7%0.3  16,642
65Wichita, KS36.57.1%3.1% $ 51,114 -5.5%0.9    7,260
66St. Cloud, MN36.313.1%3.6% $ 34,545 -0.8%2.2    5,877
67Richmond, VA36.2-5.2%8.2% $ 38,672 -2.3%0.4    5,900
68Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT35.712.0%4.8% $ 37,100 0.6%0.4    6,376
69Rochester, NY35.35.7%5.6% $ 36,398 -3.1%1.1  14,768
70Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC35.2-0.2%3.3% $ 40,743 2.3%0.5  15,328
71Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD35.113.4%2.8% $ 46,016 -3.7%0.4  13,801
72Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ34.834.2%-2.9% $ 36,070 -4.2%3.9    6,008
73El Centro, CA34.6-5.7%-9.0% $ 27,952 10.9%7.3  12,420
74Ogden-Clearfield, UT34.533.6%2.7% $ 33,771 -2.4%0.8    5,185
75Jackson, MS34.4-14.0%-1.2% $ 36,223 16.1%0.8    5,237
76Kansas City, MO-KS33.8-9.3%-0.9% $ 50,538 2.8%0.5  14,001
77Harrisonburg, VA33.6-10.4%0.0% $ 34,844 -4.3%4.6    7,585
78Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN33.512.4%-0.9% $ 51,997 -4.9%0.6  16,132
79Memphis, TN-MS-AR33.5-17.5%-2.3% $ 55,272 3.0%0.6    9,734
80Boise City, ID33.3-5.1%-1.8% $ 36,627 8.3%1.7  12,560
81San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA32.9-2.1%2.8% $ 44,038 -3.7%0.4  21,369
82Fort Smith, AR-OK32.6-22.2%-2.3% $ 34,447 8.0%3.0    8,706
83Rochester, MN32.59.2%-0.4% $ 36,864 -1.1%1.8    5,470
84San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX32.510.4%-4.9% $ 39,201 12.2%0.5  11,860
85Las Cruces, NM32.4-12.9%-1.1% $ 23,719 12.3%2.7    5,506
86Salt Lake City, UT32.3-1.1%-0.1% $ 39,698 4.4%0.3    6,090
87Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA32.2-19.9%-2.2% $ 47,083 5.2%0.9    7,431
88Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO31.8-2.2%2.6% $ 48,162 -9.4%0.4  14,651
89Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, CA31.69.9%1.0% $ 38,510 -3.0%0.7  16,298
90Lancaster, PA31.2-18.0%-2.3% $ 45,489 -2.5%2.4  15,195
91Goldsboro, NC30.9-6.0%-0.2% $ 31,551 -6.1%3.9    5,053
92Knoxville, TN30.81.2%-0.9% $ 36,956 2.9%0.6    5,745
93Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO30.7-14.2%-2.8% $ 33,593 3.0%3.0  17,130
94Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI30.7-13.6%3.3% $ 43,829 -8.4%0.6  14,113
95Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI30.0-7.5%4.3% $ 33,166 -3.8%0.2  10,978
96Providence-Warwick, RI-MA30.0-5.5%0.7% $ 33,580 2.7%0.3    6,187
97Columbia, SC29.50.0%0.8% $ 32,795 -1.6%0.9    8,184
98Urban Honolulu, HI29.5-6.3%2.8% $ 29,767 -1.1%0.6    7,576
99York-Hanover, PA29.5-1.9%-2.3% $ 43,359 -4.7%1.4    6,338
100St. Louis, MO-IL29.3-19.6%-7.4% $ 55,033 4.5%0.6  20,054
101New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA29.30.9%2.0% $ 42,074 -9.8%0.3  63,059
102Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL29.1-0.7%1.0% $ 32,275 -1.1%0.5  31,740
103Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC29.0-26.5%-4.2% $ 45,284 6.8%0.4    8,457
104Cleveland-Elyria, OH28.7-7.1%2.1% $ 35,946 -5.8%0.5  13,914
105Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN27.43.0%-3.8% $ 39,609 -1.3%0.5  10,847
106Lexington-Fayette, KY27.3-15.2%-6.2% $ 32,557 9.7%1.4    9,763
107Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA27.3-15.0%-0.8% $ 32,745 0.5%0.7  26,357
108Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD26.9-6.9%0.2% $ 40,376 -9.6%0.5  38,965
109Pittsburgh, PA26.7-20.2%0.1% $ 34,121 -0.5%0.3    7,765
110Raleigh, NC26.4-17.6%1.0% $ 40,219 -9.4%0.4    6,022
111Oklahoma City, OK26.3-12.3%-5.2% $ 37,948 4.6%0.4    6,099
112Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL25.6-14.9%-8.7% $ 43,105 -0.4%2.2  11,733
113Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL25.2-4.8%-0.2% $ 33,141 -7.5%0.4  12,851
114Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY25.1-21.6%-1.4% $ 41,848 -8.4%0.6    7,851
115Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL24.9-22.9%-8.2% $ 25,014 13.7%1.9    6,572
116Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX24.7-9.1%0.0% $ 47,118 -18.2%0.3  28,697
117Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA24.6-19.1%-3.7% $ 43,853 -5.8%0.4  59,217
118Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL23.6-14.5%1.3% $ 26,027 -7.7%0.6  20,043
119Chattanooga, TN-GA22.8-18.2%-8.1% $ 42,812 -2.2%0.9    5,466
120Salisbury, MD-DE22.3-13.6%-9.3% $ 32,913 -2.2%2.7  10,914
121McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX22.0-38.2%-11.7% $ 26,476 20.1%1.1    7,330
122North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL20.7-5.3%-4.6% $ 32,039 -11.5%1.3    9,269
123Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV18.9-19.7%-3.8% $ 31,162 -8.9%0.1  10,945
124Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ13.2-16.4%-10.8% $ 49,598 -24.4%0.6    5,176

 

To determine the top regions for agribusiness, Mark Schill of Praxis Strategy Group, mark@praxissg.com, examined employment data in 68 ag- and food production-related industries, including crop and animal production. Only metropolitan areas with at least 5,000 total jobs in the 28 industries are included in the analysis. The five measures are equally-weighted. Location quotient is the local share of jobs in agribusiness divided by the national share in the same industry group. Data is from Economic Modeling Specialists, Intl (EMSI).

Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com and Roger Hobbs Distinguished Fellow in Urban Studies at Chapman University, and a member of the editorial board of the Orange County Register. He is also executive director of the Houston-based Center for Opportunity Urbanism. His newest book, The New Class Conflict is now available at Amazon and Telos Press. He is also author of The City: A Global History and The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050.  He lives in Los Angeles, CA.

Mark Schill is a community process consultant, economic strategist, and public policy researcher with Praxis Strategy Group.

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